Some weakness is showing up in the U.S. economy despite lofty predictions of growth, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve recently forecast real gross domestic product at 1.6%, and a Citigroup Inc. basket of economic indicators has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis, Gundlach said on an asset-allocation webcast Tuesday.
The Atlanta Fed figure can be volatile.
The probability of a recession in the next two years “would be extremely high,” Gundlach said.
“Twelve months I’d give you a recession probability that’s 50-50.
Next six months I’d probably have it down at 30%.” Gundlach, whose Los Angeles-based firm oversaw more than $130 billion as of the end of March.
